Indian Markets Outlook for the week (30.07.2012-03.08.2012)


              Investors will eye overseas equities and Apr-Jun earnings for cues on Monday, but the market trend will mainly depend on the Reserve Bank of India's first-quarter monetary policy review on Tuesday. Yesterday, US index futures were up ahead of the Commerce Department's estimate for Apr-Jun gross domestic product. The RBI to keep policy rates unchanged, even though both inflation and India's economic growth have begun cooling down. Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, automobile, real estate, and capital goods could be subdued before RBI's policy. 

               Stocks of IRB Infrastructure Developers are likely to gain on Monday as the company, post market hours, reported an Apr-Jun net profit of 1.42 bln rupees. Grasim Industries could be weak as the company's 7.18-bln-rupee net profit for Apr-Jun missed consensus estimate of 7.6 bln rupees. Rural Electrification Corp stocks may gain as the company's profit rose to 8.77 bln rupees in Apr-Jun from 6.62 bln rupees a year ago. Investors in Maruti Suzuki India will take cues from the company's Apr-Jun earnings on Saturday. The auto major reporting a 15% on-year
fall in net profit to 4.69 bln rupees due to high discounts on petrol models and fluctuation in currency.

                Weakness in the rupee against the dollar coupled with a better product mix and facility utilisation are likely to help Cipla post a 24% on-year rise in net profit to 3.13 bln rupees. Jaiprakash Associates' Apr-Jun net profit is likely to have risen by a tepid 2% on year to 1.09 bln rupees.

               Havells India, Kansai Nerolac Paints, Bhushan Steel, Hexaware Technologies, IDBI Bank, Petronet LNG, Titan Industries, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare, Cummins India, Satyam Computer Services, Jet Airways, Marico, SKS Microfinance are some of the major non-Nifty companies reporting their earnings next week.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


                       Stocks of the three state-owned oil marketing companies are seen subdued next week despite expectations of hike in prices of regulated fuels in the near future. Softening crude oil prices may give some upside to the stocks of Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd if the rupee remains stable at current levels or stages a recovery. With a grim fiscal situation and threat of a sovereign rating downgrade looming large,  we see price hikes coming soon. Talk of a hike in diesel prices has been going on for the past few weeks but the government has not yet shown any indication of going ahead with it fearing backlash from coalition partners. The market trend will also be a key factor in determining the trend in these stocks but overall volumes in the sector may remain subdued as the focus will be on interest rate sensitive stocks ahead of Reserve Bank of India's first quarter policy review on Tuesday and also on companies announcing Apr-Jun results.

                         The RBI to cut key rates as poor monsoon is likely to keep inflation at levels above its comfort zone. So, overall market sentiment is seen negative. In the quarter ended June, the three marketing companies together lost 478 bln rupees on the three subsidised fuels diesel, kerosene and cooking gas. Of this, state-owned upstream oil companies Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Oil India Ltd, and GAIL (India) Ltd will stocks around 32%. The burden is lower than the 40% subsidy shared by these companies in 2011-12. However, the lower subsidy burden is unlikely to help stocks of the upstream companies as the burden is usually increased towards the end of a financial year.

                        Stocks of upstream companies are seen tracking the market. Reliance Industries is expected to remain in the 750-700-rupee range next week, as concerns over declining KG-D6 gas output and refining margin may prevent its stocks from rising while the company's ongoing buyback will cap the downside.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


                Telecom stocks will next week eye the outcome of the likely Union Cabinet decision on the proposed spectrum auction modalities, which includes the recommendation on spectrum reserve proposed by the Empowered Group of Ministers, headed by Home Minister P. Chidambaram. According to an official of the telecom department, the final note on spectrum auction norms is under process and is likely to be placed before the Cabinet early next week, and may be taken up for a decision during its weekly meeting. The EGoM is learned to have recommended a base price in the range of 140-160 bln rupees for the auction of 5 MHz of spectrum in the 1,800 MHz band, down nearly 23% from Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's proposed 181.1 bln rupees. The base price for auction of spectrum in the 800 MHz band has been recommended at 1.3 times the final base price for the 1,800 MHz band.

                Investors will also eye the Apr-Jun earnings of OnMobile Global to be announced on Tuesday. For the quarter, the company is seen reporting a consolidated net profit of 154 mln rupees on revenues of 1.87 bln rupees. International revenues to continue posting significant growth in Q1FY13 (Apr-Jun), while the domestic revenues are expected to remain subdued. Stocks of OnMobile Global are expected to trade at 28-41 rupees next week.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


              Stocks of major fast-moving consumer goods companies are seen up in the week ahead tracking the positive Apr-Jun earnings of companies such as ITC and Hindustan Lever. Index heavyweight Hindustan Unilever's Apr-Jun earnings, declared Monday and aided a 4.2% rally in its stock during the week. Similarly, stocks of ITC Ltd gained during the week as the company's Apr-Jun earnings came tad above market estimates, but its stocks pared gains on profit booking. Marico Ltd and Godrej Consumer Products Ltd will declare their Apr-Jun earnings on Aug 3 and Aug 4, respectively, and these will dictate the trend in these stocks.

                The companies are expected to post a healthy growth in earnings on robust sales volume growth and lower raw material costs. Over the past week, the BSE FMCG index gained 0.8% on positive Apr-Jun earnings of Hindustan Unilever and ITC, while the broader indices lost nearly 2% of their value. The momentum in the FMCG stocks is expected to continue through next week. Going ahead, there are short-term concerns about the companies' profitability, given the fact that weak monsoon rains will affect their performance by escalating raw material costs and curtailing rural disposable income and demand. Stocks of FMCG companies are expected to continue outperforming the broader market due to economic slowdown that has affected other sectors more than FMCG companies.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)

                         Movement in stocks of major cement makers is likely to be stock- specific next week as investors look at companies' Apr-Jun earnings to take a view on the scrip. Ambuja Cements, which rose nearly 8% this week after it posted a rock solid performance in Apr-Jun, may rise more next week. Improved realisation, and high sales volumes took Ambuja Cements' net profit for Apr-Jun up 35% year-on-year to 4.69 bln rupees, marginally higher than Street expectations. The company's net sales rose 18% to 25.66 bln rupees. Stocks of ACC may also trade slightly up, reacting to satisfactory earnings for the quarter, but the upside is likely to be limited. The company posted a 26% on-year increase in net profit at 4.14 bln rupees on the back of a 15% rise in net sales at 29.19 bln rupees. 

                     The current market price adequately factors the improving sectoral outlook and ability of the company to capitalise on the same. Jaiprakash Associates stocks, which fell over 10% this week on expectations of poor Apr-Jun earnings, may see some more fall, but the same will be capped. Jaiprakash Associates is seen posting an only 2% rise in Apr-Jun net profit driven by realisations from its cement business. The company will detail its quarterly earnings on Tuesday. Cement volume (ex-Jaypee Cement Corp) is likely to be 4.3 mln tn; while blended realisation is expected to rise 0.4% on year to 3,672 rupees per tonne. Street is also likely to watch Andhra Cements' Apr-Jun earnings Wednesday, Madras Cements' results on Thursday, and India Cements' numbers on Aug 13.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


              The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy Tuesday and Apr-Jun earnings of companies are likely to provide direction to pharmaceutical stocks next week. Traders are likely to be cautious and invest in less risky stocks on Monday, ahead of the Jul 31 monetary policy of the RBI. Being defensive in nature, pharmaceutical stocks are likely to attract investors Monday. A majority expect the RBI governor to keep the repo rate, at which it lends to banks under the liquidity adjustment facility, unchanged at 8.0% in the first quarter review of the monetary policy on Tuesday. Stocks of Cipla Ltd will be in focus as the company announces its quarterly earnings on Tuesday. In Apr-Jun, the Mumbai-based company's net profit is likely to rise 24% from a year ago to 3.13 bln rupees. Revenues may rise 22% to 18.93 bln rupees, decent growth in Cipla's domestic business, and higher realisation from exports because of the depreciation of the rupee.

            However, the stock along with stocks of Cadila Healthcare may see some lows next week as the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority turned down the companies'  request to increase insulin prices. Stocks of GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals and Pfizer Ltd are also likely to fall next week as the NPPA has cut the prices of vitamin C drugs ranging from 0.12% to 37.7% of the existing rates. Stocks of Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd are seen gaining next week as the US Food and Drug Administration has lifted the year-long import ban from the Mexican intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients manufacturing unit of the company. The company can now start importing products from the unit to the US.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

Steel Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


                Stocks of steel companies are seen rangebound next week in the absence of any stock-specific triggers and will track key indices. The market trend will mainly depend on Reserve Bank of India's first-quarter monetary policy review on Tuesday. This week, Jindal Steel and Power and JSW Steel reported their Apr-Jun earnings. Jindal Steel's earnings were hit mainly due to a provision of 5.74 bln rupees on account of impairment of its investment in Bolivia. Earlier this month, the company terminated its iron ore mining and steel manufacturing projects in Bolivia terming its government non-investor friendly. The company's consolidated net profit fell 59% on year to 3.85 bln rupees while net sales rose 18.9% on year to 46.80 bln rupees.

                    Considering the delay in projects, heightened regulatory risks and uncertainty on international operations. JSW Steel reported a sharp 90% year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit at 500 mln rupees due to foreign exchange and associate company losses. However, strong sales volume and realisation lifted consolidated net sales by 33% on year to 99.02 bln rupees. Despite iron ore shortage the company posted a strong operational performance. The company's consolidated operating profit was up 33% on year at 19.1 bln rupees. JSW Steel's FY13 EBITDA estimate by 8% on strong Apr-Jun margin performance.

                    The structural story (of the company) remains clouded by possible delays in ramp-up of mining in Karnataka, high operating and financial leverage further weakened by structural weakness in global steel margins, and possible headwind of JSWS-Ispat Industries' merger. The market will now await earnings of Tata Steel and Steel Authority of India scheduled over the next fortnight, which will decide the trend for the steel stocks going forward. Steel companies will continue to face subdued demand over the next two to three months due to poor monsoon and macro economic uncertainties. JSW Steel's Commercial Director Jayanat Acharya expects demand to revive in the second half of the current financial year. He expects prices to remain stable in the next few months.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


                 The Reserve Bank of India's first quarter policy review on Tuesday and monthly sales numbers by automakers due Wednesday are expected to set the trend for auto stocks in the coming week. Hero MotoCorp, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Auto are expected to come out with better sales numbers for July whereas Tata Motors' despatch figures for the month could be disappointing. Maruti is expected to be rangebound in the coming week with a slightly negative bias. Maruti Suzuki's plant in Manesar, Haryana has been shut since Jul 18 following labour riot. The company will detail its Apr-Jun results on Saturday. However, unless the results are far from expectations, they won't impact the stock's movement significantly as focus is on Manesar developments. Any significant change in repo rate by the Reserve Bank on Tuesday will lend direction to the broad market and interest-sensitive auto stocks. 

(www.rupeedesk.in)

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


               Stocks of capital goods and engineering companies are likely move in a narrow range ahead of Reserve Bank of India's first-quarter monetary policy review on Tuesday. Treasurers, fund managers, and economists, a majority expects the RBI governor to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.0%. High interest costs have been hurting Indian capital goods and engineering companies for a while now. RBI has hiked the repo rate, at which it lends to banks under its liquidity adjustment facility, by a cumulative 175 basis points since January 2011. High interest rates, coupled with industrial slowdown, and paucity of orders have strained the operating margins of these capital-intensive engineering and construction companies. Stocks of Suzlon Energy are likely to be in focus Monday as the company yesterday redeemed outstanding foreign currency convertible bonds worth $360 mln.

                 IRB Infrastructure stocks are also likely to see an uptick as the company posted higher-than-estimated net profit and net sales for Apr-Jun. The company is likely to face headwinds in the coming quarters due to the various structural issues faced by the company such as lack of clarity on fuel linkages, over-capacity in the boiler, turbine, and generator space, and hurdles in obtaining environmental clearances and land acquisition.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

IT Stocks Outlook for the week (30.07.2012 - 03.08.2012)


               Stocks of major information technology firms are likely to see stock-specific movement next week, based on Apr-Jun earnings announced by these companies. HCL Technologies, which posted a robust year-on-year growth for Apr-Jun, rose nearly 8% this week and may continue the trend in the coming week as well. Strong on-year growth of 37.7% in revenues at 59.19 bln rupees coupled with tighter control on costs helped the Delhi-based IT major beat Street expectations of its June quarter earnings by a yawning gap. The company reported a 67.3% on-year jump in quarterly net profit to 8.54 bln rupees. Infosys and Wipro, which disappointed investors with poor earnings for Apr-Jun, are likely to continue seeing lack of investor interest next week. This week, stocks of Infosys and Wipro declined 3% and 8%, respectively.

               Tuesday, Wipro posted a lower-than-expected net profit for Apr-Jun, and shared a tepid guidance for Jul-Sep, on the back of delays in decision-making by clients, and order closures. The soaps-to-software major posted a 6.7% sequential growth in consolidated net profit for Apr-Jun at 15.80 bln rupees. Wipro's 2QFY13 (Jul-Sep) US dollar revenue guidance of 0.3-2.3% QoQ (quarter-on-quarter) growth was poor and, in absolute terms, is the third successive quarter that the IT major has given the exact same dollar revenue guidance, implying no growth momentum whatsoever. In our view, this guidance is likely to lead to the stock continuing to get a short shrift from investors.

(www.rupeedesk.in)

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India Markets Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)


India Markets Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Domestic stock indices are likely to take cues from data on India's inflation in June, and the Apr-Jun earnings of companies next week. Monday is the day of the release of data on Wholesale Price Index-based inflation in June. Fears are that the already high inflation rate has inched upward in the month.The reading is expected to influence the Reserve Bank of India's first quarter policy review on Jul 31. However, see the Apr-Jun earnings of companies having a greater impact on stocks than the inflation data.

Yesterday, the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty ended at 5227.25 points, down 8.00 points or 0.15% from Thursday, after moving between 5216.85 and 5267.15. The BSE's Sensex closed at 17213.70 points, down 18.85 points or 0.11%. Intraday, the 30-stock index touched a low of 17182.29 and a high of 17342.88.

The Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 5200-5350 next week.The Index is now near a critical support of 5220 which is lower end of the channel it has been trading in over the past one month...a break below which would change the short term trend to down and the next immediate support for the NIFTY would be between levels of 5000-5050.

Among Nifty heavyweights, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Hero MotoCorp, and Reliance Industries will detail their quarterly earnings next week. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, in a report Thursday, agreed that the pace of earnings downgrades is slowing down. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch prefers stocks of companies in pharmaceutical and rate-sensitive sectors but is wary of fast-moving consumer goods stocks, which it finds expensive. 

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)



FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen down next week as leading companies of the sector are likely to post weak sales volume for Apr-Jun. The Apr-Jun earnings of companies would be in focus.

Index heavyweights Hindustan Unilever Ltd and Dabur India Ltd will declare their Apr-Jun earnings on Jul 23. Marico Ltd will declare the quarter's earnings on Aug 3 and Godrej Consumer Products Ltd will announce its result on Aug 4.

Even as a weak monsoon is threatening to dent earnings of FMCG companies, they are working towards new strategies to counter this. These strategies include promoting low-price products, introducing new offerings to prevent consumers from down-trading, and stepping up marketing efforts to strengthen top-of-the-mind recall and sales.

Monsoon rains have been 23% below normal so far this season.  But we reckon that FMCG stocks will continue to outperform broader indices in the near future, because of the expected volatility the latter. Even over the past week, the BSE FMCG index remained flat, when the broader indices lost 1.8% in value.  

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)



Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Telecom stocks next week will take cues from the meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers on spectrum, likely on Monday or Tuesday, to decide on spectrum auction modalities, including the contentious issue of spectrum reserve price.

On Apr 23, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India had recommended a reserve price of 36.22 bln rupees per 1 MHz of spectrum in the 1800 MHz band
at a pan-India level, which has been termed as exorbitantly high by telecom operators.

The ministerial panel, headed by Home Minister P. Chidambaram, in its meet Thursday gave approval for the mortgage of spectrum by telecom companies to secure funds from banks and is expected take a call on rollout obligations norms for the auctioned spectrum in its next meet.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)


IT Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Stocks of major information technology companies may be confined to a narrow band next week but Apr-Jun earnings of some companies could cause sharp movement in their stocks Among the gainers will be stocks of Tata Consultancy Services, which reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings Thursday and dethroned Infosys as the sector bellwether. TCS management's bullish outlook on performance in the coming quarters will keep investors interested in the stock.

We continue to believe that TCS is the best company to own in the India IT services space in the near term to protect downside in a difficult and uncertain Indian market. Infosys's dismal quarterly numbers and pessimistic revenue growth guidance for 2012-13 (Apr-Mar) will ensure the stock remains weak in the coming sessions. Infosys shares fell 8.8% this week.

The company Thursday revised downward its revenue growth guidance for this financial year citing global macroeconomic headwinds, foreign exchange volatility, and pricing decline in Apr-Jun as reasons. Now, Infosys has projected a lukewarm revenue growth of 5% for this financial year, way below the 11-14% estimated by NASSCOM for the Indian information technology industry.

Infosys 1QFY13 (Apr-Jun) performance was disappointing on all counts--revenue, margin and net profit. Revised FY13 guidance is far from encouraging. The fact that it has discontinued quarterly guidance is another indicator that the business environment is changing for the worse. We believe any arguments stating low expectations for buying the stock are flawed, particularly when the company is unable to meet even watered-down expectations.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)


Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Stocks of state-owned oil marketing companies are seen rangebound with a negative bias next week, while those of Reliance Industries may remain subdued ahead of the company's Apr-Jun earnings, to be detailed Friday. High volatility in the rupee against the dollar may continue to weigh on the stocks even as crude oil prices have stabilised, albeit at higher levels.

The Indian currency declined sharply to a low of 55.94 to a dollar on Thursday, but pulled back sharply today to end at 55.14. Crude oil prices were flat week-on-week at $97.99 per barrel, but still significantly higher than the 18-month low of $89.19 around June-end.

We believe valuations of the three state-owned companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd--are now stretched given the weakness in the broad market. Next week the market will take cues from inflation data for June, which will be released on Monday and focus will be on companies reporting Apr-Jun numbers, so the overall trade in the oil marketing companies' shares is seen muted.

Talks of an imminent hike in diesel, kerosene and cooking gas prices after the presidential elections on Jul 19 may support the stocks and prevent sharp declines, dealers said. Among the oil companies, only Reliance Industries is scheduled to detail earnings next week.

Reliance Industries' net profit for the quarter ended June is seen declining 23% on year to 43.65 bln rupees, mainly because of a continued decline in gross refining margins and falling gas output from KG-D6. The company's GRMs may shrink as much as 30% in Apr-Jun from the year ago period.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)


Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Stocks of capital goods and engineering companies are seen moving in a narrow band next week, with stock-specific action in the absence of any major triggers. We continue to maintain a cautious view on the sector given the multiple issues plaguing the capital goods and engineering space. Limited orders, high interest rates, land acquisition and environmental clearance hurdles, policy inaction, and an overall industrial slowdown are keeping investors at bay from the capital goods and engineering space.

Industrial growth data released by the Central Statistics Office Thursday showed capital goods output fell 7.7% in May versus a growth of 6.2% a year ago. We expect the capital goods sector to continue with its subdued performance in the June 2012 quarter. New order inflows, key growth driver for the industry, have remained lukewarm. Since the demand for capital goods is derived from other sectors such as power, infrastructure, and mining, among others, the growth of the sector would depend on the conditions of these sectors.

Power Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)


Power Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Power sector has been reeling under issues of fuel linkages and environmental clearances, while mining sector has been at a standstill with the Supreme Court ban on iron ore mining in Karnataka. Transmission and distribution sector is still getting orders from Power Grid Corp of India benefiting companies such as KEC International and Alstom T&D India which manufacture cables and transformers.

But orders in the power generation equipment have nearly dried up hurting players such as Bharat Heavy Electricals, BGR Energy Systems, Siemens, and Thermax.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)


Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Stocks of pharmaceutical companies are seen trading in a range-bound manner next week. However, investors will eye Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd's Apr-Jun result to be detailed on Thursday. Sequentially, the company's net profit is seen rising 3% while its net sales are likely to fall by 4% over the Jan-Mar quarter.

In the next few trading sessions, shares of Cipla Ltd are seen trading with a positive bias and investors with a long horizon may enter the stock at around 332 rupees, with a target of 355 rupees. Near-term support for the stock is seen at 325 rupees.

Apart from stock-specific movement, the sector will take cues from the broader market in the next five trading sessions. India's wholesale price inflation for June, which will be detailed on Monday, is likely to set the mood for the domestic indices. Investors will also eye the Apr-Jun earnings of companies.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week (16 20.07.2012)


 Cement Stocks Outlook for the week (16 20.07.2012)

Stocks of major cement companies are seen trading in a range with an upward bias next week mainly on expectations of strong earnings in the quarter ended June.
Most cement makers will announce Apr-Jun earnings later in the month. UltraTech Cement will post its earnings on Jul 20.

Cement companies are likely to report strong profit growth (year-on-year) backed by improved margins and a pick-up in volumes over a low base. We expect revenue growth of 15.5% year-on-year... in Q1FY13 (Apr-Jun).

Cement demand across the country remained strong during the June quarter, which led companies to keep prices at elevated levels. This will help cement
makers post robust operating profit margins for the quarter. However, though cement prices have been strong in recent months, they may fall now due to onset of monsoon, which is likely to limit the upside.
Onset of monsoon is a negative factor (for cement companies) and this will keep sentiment subdued in the sector. Arrival of monsoon brings construction activity to a standstill, which hurts demand for cement in the domestic market.

Shares of most cement companies have factored in news of Competition Commission of India's slapping hefty penalties on 11 companies found guilty of cartelisation.
The companies found guilty were UltraTech Cement, ACC, Ambuja Cements, India Cements, Madras Cements, Lafarge India, Jaypee Cements, Century Cement,
Binani Cement, JK Cement, and Grasim Cements--which was merged with Ultratech Cement.

These companies have been penalised 50% of their respective net profit for financial years 2009-10 (Apr-Mar) and 2010-11. Since the companies have decided to challenge the order in the Competition Appellate Tribunal, its impact will not have any further impact on stock prices.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)


Auto Stocks Outlook for the week (16-20.07.2012)

Looming diesel price hike, announcement of Apr-Jun earnings, and monsoon rainfall are going to lend direction to auto stocks next week. Hero MotoCorp will announce its earnings for Apr-Jun on Thursday.Hero could surprise positively in terms of profitability. Reports of a hike in diesel prices after the presidential polls, which are also due Thursday, have been doing rounds for some time and any significant hike in the fuel's price could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the auto sector especially in Mahindra & Mahindra counter.
   
Most of Mahindra & Mahindra's models are diesel run. Monsoon rains, which have been 23% below normal so far this year, will also add to headwind for the auto stock counter. If rains continue to be weak it will hit sales of auto, especially in rural areas. Bajaj Auto, which will report its June quarter earnings Wednesday, is seen reporting a meagre 3% rise in net profit. Bajaj Auto stock is seen performing flat to negative. We expects Maruti Suzuki to outperform in the short term, as sees no further hike in petrol prices in the near term. Also, the commencement of the festive season from August will support sales.    

Indian Markets Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)


Indian Markets Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Key indices are likely to move in a thin band early next week as investors will stay on the sidelines before the Apr-Jun earnings of Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services on Thursday. Aution ahead of industrial production data for May, which is also due on Thursday, will keep volumes low and trade choppy. Yesterday, the combined turnover in the cash segments of the BSE and National Stock Exchange was around 119 bln rupees versus 130 bln rupees on Thursday. As the earnings season begins, expecting a poor show from India Inc, which is plagued by weak demand environment and high interest cost. The headline profit growth for 1QFY13 (Apr-Jun) for Sensex companies is likely to be 13.7%. Secondly, sales growth is expected to start dragging earnings while margins stabilize at lower levels, aggregate Sensex (operating) margins are expected to show a drop of 115bps (basis points) to 16.7%.

In particular, energy, metal, and telecommunications companies are likely to report a fall in margins. On Monday, overseas markets will lend cues to investors. US index futures were trading weak ahead of June non-farm payrolls data later yesterday. The Nifty holding above the key 5300 level is likely to keep the index positive in coming sessions. However, any negative surprises from Infosys or TCS in their Apr-Jun results could lead the index to slip below its key support of 5250. We see 5200-5400 as the broad trading range for the index next week. Stocks of information technology companies are likely to remain subdued for most part of the week as investors will assess the results of sector leaders Infosys and TCS before taking any significant positions. Also, more than the quarterly results, outlook of the two companies on demand will be keenly eyed. We fear that Infosys, which had cut its revenue outlook in April, may again lower its projection. In April, the company had said it expects dollar-denominated revenue to grow by 8-10% in 2012-13 (Apr-Mar) compared with expectations of 11-14%. Any negative surprise from Infosys or TCS in the demand environment could lead to a de-rating of not only their stocks but the entire technology sector. Apart from Infosys and TCS, IndusInd Bank and Housing Development Finance Corp will be in focus next week as they release their Apr-Jun results.
owing v � r c � @ in the stock.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)



IT Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Stocks of information technology companies are likely to be subdued for most part of next week as investors will turn cautious before announcement of the Apr-Jun earnings of sector leaders Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys, due on Thursday. However, if the broad market trades positive, any downside in these stocks would be limited. We forecast sluggish revenue growth (of (-)1% to 2% sequentially in dollar terms) for Tier-I IT companies as the macro outlook remains tough, and cross currencies impact the reported USD revenues for Q1 (Apr-Jun) negatively. TCS' net profit is seen rising 8% sequentially to 31.62 bln rupees and net sales are seen growing 11% to 147.35 bln rupees. We believe investors will have a greater focus on Infosys and TCS' outlook on demand, and many are anticipating a cut in Infosys' projection. IT had been a great place to hide given the rupee depreciation, but serious doubts about the demand scenario, especially from the BFSI (banking financial services and insurance) segment, have emerged. We believe that Infosys will announce another cut to its demand forecast to around 6% from current 8-10% and possibly trigger a second round of de-rating. Investors will also track the movement of the rupee against the dollar as software exporters get nearly 65% of their revenue from the US. In the week to date, the Indian currency has appreciated about 0.25% against the dollar.

TECHNICAL VIEW

Technically, the bias for Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Wipro appears to be weak, while that for TCS, Satyam Computer Services, and Tech Mahindra is rangebound. The CNX IT index also looks weak on the charts, and is likely to trade in a range of 5960-6170 next week. If the index slips below the lower end of the range, it could test 5800 in one to two sessions. 
� ] u i � @ and prices, hence margins, to trend upward year-on-year.
, pred� m e � @ rojection of only moderate improvement in RIL's refining margin and a bottoming out of petrochemical margins.
er} � e � @ headroom for upside potential following the recent rally in the stock.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)


Cement Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Stocks of leading cement companies are seen gaining in the next five sessions on expectations of strong earnings in Apr-Jun. Most cement makers will announce June quarter earnings later this month. We expect Q1FY13 (Apr-Jun) to be yet another strong quarter for cement companies. Accordingly, the top 3 cement stocks have outperformed broad indices by 45-75% year-on-year. Cement demand across the country remained strong during Apr-Jun, which led companies to keep prices at elevated levels. This will help cement makers to post robust operating profit margins for the quarter. Earnings before interest tax depreciation amortisation per tonne is expected to increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Average all-India cement prices are expected to be higher by 11% YoY and 5.5% QoQ, while average cost per tonne is likely to be up 8-9% YoY and 4% QoQ.

We expect sales volumes for the industry to have risen around 9.5% year-on-year in Apr-Jun, mainly due to a low base effect. On the back of this positive sentiment, stocks of most cement companies have been trading positive for the past three weeks, despite the Competition Commission of India levying hefty penalties on 11 companies found guilty of cartelisation. The companies found guilty were UltraTech Cement, ACC, Ambuja Cements, India Cements, Madras Cements, Lafarge India, Jaypee Cements, Century Cement, Binani Cement, JK Cement, and Grasim Cements which has merged with Ultratech Cement. The companies have been penalised 50% of their respective net profit for financial years 2009-10 (Apr-Mar) and 2010-11. The impact of this order is unlikely to be seen in the near-term as most companies have decided to challenge the order in the Competition Appellate Tribunal.

Seasonally, news flow regarding volumes and pricing is likely to weaken owing to onset of monsoon. However, structurally, we remain positive on the sector as we expect utilisations and prices, hence margins, to trend upward year-on-year.
, pred� m e � @ rojection of only moderate improvement in RIL's refining margin and a bottoming out of petrochemical margins.
er} � e � @ headroom for upside potential following the recent rally in the stock.

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)


Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Telecom stocks are seen trading higher next week on the back of the split judgement given by the Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal Tuesday on the legality of intra-circle roaming pacts between operators for 3G services. The verdict means there is a status-quo as of now, whereby service providers like Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, which do not have 3G spectrum in some circles, can continue providing 3G services in circles where they do not have licence, according to legal counsel representing the companies. Stocks will also takes cues from the meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers likely to be held on Monday. The panel will be now headed by Home Minister P. Chidambaram. According to reports, the panel will now only decide the modalities of the 2G spectrum auction process, whereas the contentious issue of spectrum reserve price will be decided by the Union Cabinet. Stocks of Bharti Airtel are seen trading positively, as investors havetaken long positions and as the stock has been able to close above its crucial resistance level of 320 rupees.
mab � y e � @ ign:justify'>Markets, especially Bank Nifty still has some short positions standing in it and these shorts would lend support in every dip. As downside looks limited in large caps and positive bias and consolidation are two likely probabilities, midcap may catch up with large caps and outperform in near term. Early trends in Apr-Jun earnings will also emerge next week, with IndusInd Bank and HDFC Bank slated to declare their results on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Apr-Jun is generally a subdued period for bank profits, especially on-quarter, as it coincides with slack loan demand season for the industry. Overall, we do not expect any major surprises in Q1FY13 (lacklustre due to seasonality). While our top large-cap picks are SBI and Axis Bank, we prefer YES Bank among mid-caps from a long-term perspective. Punjab National Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce on strong asset quality while it sees Union Bank of India report lacklustre numbers.
ann� 5 e � @ two weeks. The company has been aggressively buying its stock at levels around 700 under the ongoing buyback at up to 870 rupees per share and that has supported the counter. However, little upside from current levels in the near term. We believe RIL's core business will show earnings growth starting in 3Q FY13 (Oct-Dec), after three quarters of poor to flat results, but any turnaround will likely be modest, predicated on our projection of only moderate improvement in RIL's refining margin and a bottoming out of petrochemical margins.
er} � e � @ headroom for upside potential following the recent rally in the stock.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)


Bank Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Stocks of most banks are seen lower in the coming week as investors book profits to take advantage of the rise in stock prices over the last few sessions. Most bank stocks have risen over the last few sessions, but we feel the upside is limited and expect Bank Nifty to ease towards 10,300 levels in the coming week. The rise has been sentiment driven but unless some actual RBI policy action or government policy changes materialise, the rise is unsustainable. However, We expects medium sized state-owned banks like Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank, UCO Bank, Vijaya Bank, Union Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank, Canara Bank and Bank of India to be positive.

Markets, especially Bank Nifty still has some short positions standing in it and these shorts would lend support in every dip. As downside looks limited in large caps and positive bias and consolidation are two likely probabilities, midcap may catch up with large caps and outperform in near term. Early trends in Apr-Jun earnings will also emerge next week, with IndusInd Bank and HDFC Bank slated to declare their results on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Apr-Jun is generally a subdued period for bank profits, especially on-quarter, as it coincides with slack loan demand season for the industry. Overall, we do not expect any major surprises in Q1FY13 (lacklustre due to seasonality). While our top large-cap picks are SBI and Axis Bank, we prefer YES Bank among mid-caps from a long-term perspective. Punjab National Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce on strong asset quality while it sees Union Bank of India report lacklustre numbers.
ann� 5 e � @ two weeks. The company has been aggressively buying its stock at levels around 700 under the ongoing buyback at up to 870 rupees per share and that has supported the counter. However, little upside from current levels in the near term. We believe RIL's core business will show earnings growth starting in 3Q FY13 (Oct-Dec), after three quarters of poor to flat results, but any turnaround will likely be modest, predicated on our projection of only moderate improvement in RIL's refining margin and a bottoming out of petrochemical margins.
er} � e � @ headroom for upside potential following the recent rally in the stock.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)


Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Stocks of the state-owned oil-marketing companies are expected to remain range-bound next week amid uncertainty over crude prices and volatile rupee-dollar movement. Stocks of the three companies Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd will closely track crude prices and rupee-dollar movement. The rupee depreciated sharply against the greenback over the last three days, after having gained on the first two days of the week. Meanwhile, crude prices strengthened again this week after the European sanctions on Iran came into force from Jul 1, affecting crude supplies. We believe that crude prices will remain soft in the near term because of weak global economic conditions. It expects crude prices to remain near $100 a barrel in the current financial year. On Thursday, India's crude basket was $99.40 a barrel.

The rupee, too, is expected to remain weak in the near term because of concerns over the Eurozone. This does not augur well for the oil-marketing companies, which import over 75% of their crude requirements. However, hopes of some hike in prices of regulated fuels like diesel, kerosene and cooking gas after the presidential elections later this month, may support the stocks on the downside. HSBC, however, advises buying Indian Oil stocks as it is undervalued after underperforming the other two government-owned oil marketers during the last six months. IOCL also has the most stable earnings earnings that are the least sensitive to net under-recovery among the three OMCs. Reliance Industries stocks are seen in a narrow band, in line with the broad market, ahead of the company's earnings for the Apr-Jun quarter to be announced in around two weeks. The company has been aggressively buying its stock at levels around 700 under the ongoing buyback at up to 870 rupees per share and that has supported the counter. However, little upside from current levels in the near term. We believe RIL's core business will show earnings growth starting in 3Q FY13 (Oct-Dec), after three quarters of poor to flat results, but any turnaround will likely be modest, predicated on our projection of only moderate improvement in RIL's refining margin and a bottoming out of petrochemical margins.
er} � e � @ headroom for upside potential following the recent rally in the stock.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)



Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Stocks of capital goods and engineering companies are likely to be rangebound with a negative bias for better part of next week, in tandem with broader indices. There could be some stock-specific action after the Central Statistics Office releases the industrial production data for May on Thursday. The data will lend cues on the Reserve Bank of India's future action on policy rates, which is also crucial for the capital goods and engineering sector. With RBI choosing to tackle inflation first and deal with insipid economic growth later and added with government's inaction to spur investments, the fate of capital goods and engineering companies continues to hang in the balance. Projects data from CMIE showed new investments are being hurt by high interest rates, an uncertain macro environment along with fuel and environmental issues. New projects have fallen 65% from the peak in 56.87 bln rupees in Oct-Dec 2010.

In our view, a sustained upturn in the capex cycle is still not forthcoming; a softening in interest rates and commodity prices, coupled with the resolution of fuel and environmental/land issues would trigger the next capex cycle. Crompton Greaves and Larsen & Toubro as preferred plays within the capital goods and infrastructure space. Stocks of Crompton Greaves gained nearly 8.5% during the week on plans to restructure its Belgium operations to shift manufacturing from high cost Belgium to low cost Hungary and Ireland. Partial relocation of manufacturing to Hungary can add 65 bps EBITDA of international ops by FY14. L&T, on the other hand, is gaining strength due to strong order inflows and continued gain in market stock. Our positive view on L&T is based on: 1) Continued market stock gains domestically in a tough macro environment and 2) benefit in overseas markets due to significant rupee depreciation. It, however, sees limited headroom for upside potential following the recent rally in the stock.

Steel Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)


Steel Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Stocks of steel companies are likely to fall next week as local and global demand for the metal is weak. Although demand for steel grew at a robust pace in the first two months of this financial year, it may slow in the coming months because of southwest monsoons. In Apr-May, steel consumption in India grew 8% from a year ago to 11.80 mln tn, the steel ministry's joint plant committee said in a report. Construction activity usually comes to a halt during the monsoons, affecting demand for steel in the local market. Demand from the automobiles sector, another key consumer of the metal, has remained sluggish as several manufacturers are resorting to production cuts. Also, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers has lowered its estimates on growth of passenger car sales in the country. Global demand for steel remains weak due to worries over the economy of the Eurozone, and slowdown in industrial activity in China. Global prices of steel continued their fall this fortnight due to weak demand and high output.

This week, domestic steel companies got some relief as some iron ore mines of Karnataka are expected to resume operations next month. Steel companies were facing severe shortage of iron ore after mining in the state was banned last August. These mines are likely to produce 6 mln tn iron ore annually. Companies such as JSW Steel, and Kalyani Steels, which had to cut production in the past one year because of ore shortage, expect their operations to return to full capacity in two-three months. Steel companies reporting flat-to-slightly positive growth for Apr-Jun. Sequential improvement in the companies' profitability due to increase in long and flat product prices, ICICI Securities expects their realisations to remain flat.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)



FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week (09 - 13.07.2012)

Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are expected to move in a narrow range with a negative bias next week, as sluggishness in the broader markets may reflect in these stocks. FMCG stocks were outperforming broader indices till a week back owing to their defensive nature, but lost steam over the past five sessions. However, investors are positive on FMCG companies in the long term as their margins are expected to improve owing to softening in the prices of some key commodities such as wheat, barley, sugar and milk. Over the past two months, prices of key inputs such as copra, soda ash, palm  oil, safflower oil and sunflower oil have fallen. Companies such as GSK Consumer Health Care Ltd, Britannia Industries Ltd, Emami Ltd, Marico Ltd and Hindustan Unilever Ltd are seen benefiting from the downtrend in prices of raw materials.

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