India Stocks Outlook for the week: 24-28.12.2012

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The bias for benchmark indices is seen negative next week as the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty closed below the 5850-support level today. However, trade may remain volatile as traders roll over positions to the January derivatives contracts as the current month series will expire Thursday. Yesterday, Nifty rollovers provisionally stood at 30% and market-wide at 27%.

Most expect Monday to be a relatively dull session, given that Tuesday is a holiday for Christmas. They expect rollovers to pick up on the penultimate day of the expiry. Meanwhile, options data continues to suggest 5750-5950 as a range for the Nifty. Yesterday, the NSE Nifty ended at 5847.70, down 68.70 points, or 1.2% from Thursday. The BSE's 30-stock Sensex closed at 19242.00, down 211.92 points, or 1.1%.

Volumes are expected to be low next week as most overseas markets will be closed on account of Christmas. However, investors will keenly eye developments on discussions to resolve the deadlock over US' debt reduction deal. Back home, bank and metal stocks may see some more profit booking after rising earlier this week. Bharti Airtel may slip further as the stock has seen short rollovers in the midst of news that the Central Bureau of Investigation has chargesheeted the company for alleged irregularities in grant of spectrum beyond the stipulated limit during the tenure of former Telecom Minister Late Promod Mahajan.

India Stocks Outlook for the week (12-16.11.2012)

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Stock indices are seen trading in a narrow band in the shorter-than-usual week ahead, with some weakness likely to persist after yesterday fall, as the market would eye the industrial production data for September. Domestic stock market will remain closed on Tuesday and Wednesday for Laxmi Pujan and Diwali Balipratipada, respectively.
   
Global concerns and weak Jul-Sep earnings by State Bank of India and Tata Steel affected investor sentiment yesterday. The concerns over the US economy's recovery being stalled if $600-bln of spending cuts and tax hikes take effect in January rattled investor sentiment. The National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty ended at 5686.25, down 52.50 points or 0.9%. The BSE's 30-share Sensex closed at 18683.68, down 162.58 points or 0.9%. We believe that the underperformance in the markets in the last two sessions signifies that indices are in a consolidation phase.
   
From a long-term perspective, however, market participants hold a positive view and recommend accumulating stocks on dips. We believe this round of consolidation will soon come to an end and the Nifty will break-out on the upside. The fag-end of the Jul-Sep earnings season will continue to keep action stock-specific. Views are mixed on United Spirits' stock performance on Monday in reaction to the deal announcement with Diageo, with most market participants expecting profit booking in the counter after the recent rally in anticipation of the deal.

There may be stock specific action on the counters of companies detailing earnings over the weekend and next week including IVRCL, Jain Irrigation Systems, DLF, Jaiprakash Associates, and Wockhardt, among others.

India Stocks Outlook for the week (12-16.11.2012)

www.rupeedesk.in

Stock indices are seen trading in a narrow band in the shorter-than-usual week ahead, with some weakness likely to persist after yesterday fall, as the market would eye the industrial production data for September. Domestic stock market will remain closed on Tuesday and Wednesday for Laxmi Pujan and Diwali Balipratipada, respectively.
 
Global concerns and weak Jul-Sep earnings by State Bank of India and Tata Steel affected investor sentiment yesterday. The concerns over the US economy's recovery being stalled if $600-bln of spending cuts and tax hikes take effect in January rattled investor sentiment. The National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty ended at 5686.25, down 52.50 points or 0.9%. The BSE's 30-share Sensex closed at 18683.68, down 162.58 points or 0.9%. We believe that the underperformance in the markets in the last two sessions signifies that indices are in a consolidation phase.
 
From a long-term perspective, however, market participants hold a positive view and recommend accumulating stocks on dips. We believe this round of consolidation will soon come to an end and the Nifty will break-out on the upside. The fag-end of the Jul-Sep earnings season will continue to keep action stock-specific. Views are mixed on United Spirits' stock performance on Monday in reaction to the deal announcement with Diageo, with most market participants expecting profit booking in the counter after the recent rally in anticipation of the deal.

There may be stock specific action on the counters of companies detailing earnings over the weekend and next week including IVRCL, Jain Irrigation Systems, DLF, Jaiprakash Associates, and Wockhardt, among others.

India Stocks Outlook for the week (03.09.2012-07.09.2012)

Indices will take cues from overseas markets next week, with all eyes on US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Breanne’s speech today at Jackson Hole, but the bias may be negative. Opinion is divided about whether Breanne will announce a third round of quantitative easing, but expectations have been running low in the run-up to the event. CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, on Wednesday, said the Indian market has partly priced in hopes of stimulus measures from the US central bank.

Today, the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty ended at 5258.50, down 56.55 points or 1.1% from Thursday. The BSE's 30-stock Sensex closed at 17380.75, down 160.89 points or 0.9%. Intraday, indices briefly came off lows as data showed India's gross domestic product grew 5.5% in Apr-Jun. Though this was a bit above consensus estimates, it was nearly flat from 5.3% growth in Jan-Mar, and significantly lower than the 8.0% growth recorded last year.

While this may be an upside surprise in GDP, the number remains quite weak overall...While the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) concerns on inflation are valid, we feel that given expectations of markedly sub-par growth in this fiscal year..., some softening in core inflationary pressures over the next six months may force the RBI to take measures to revive economic growth. This view is reinforced by the near-zero fiscal spending headroom and hesitant government policy initiatives. We maintain our expectation of another 100bp of repo rate cuts in FY12-13.
We expect see 5200 as a strong support for the Nifty and 5350 as an immediate resistance. Next week, shares of automobile companies will take cues from August sales numbers, due over the weekend. Stocks of mining and steel companies will be in focus also as the Supreme Court will Monday pronounce its order on the question of resumption of mining in Karnataka.
(www.rupeedesk.in)