Indian Markets Outlook for the week - 09 to 13.12.2013

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The results of the state assembly polls will set the trend for local share indices next week. Exit polls indicate a strong showing by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, and this is largely factored in by the market. If BJP wins in Delhi as well then it would be a major positive, and indices could scale lifetime highs. If BJP wins in four states, it is perceived that it will put the party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in a better position to win the general elections in 2014, thereby giving a push to stalled reforms and large- scale investments in the country. The National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty may top 6500 points while the S&P BSE 30-share Sensex may top 22000 points. Yesterday, the Nifty ended at 6259.90, up 18.80 points or 0.3% from Thursday, and the Sensex closed at 20996.53, up 38.72 points or 0.2%. The MCX Stock Exchange's SX40 ended at 12454.12, up 26.98 points or 0.2%.

Announcement of state election results on Sunday is likely to trigger a gap opening on Monday. Short covering may continue among banking stocks if results come in line with the exit poll estimates. Nifty 6400 call option has the seen the highest net open interest build- up, which may act as an intermediate resistance in the run up to our earlier stated target of 6500. If BJP fails to win Delhi assembly election, then profit booking would emerge and Nifty can drift lower to 6100 points. Rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, automobiles, capital goods, and realty will lead gains in indices. Among specific stocks, Strides Arcolab will be in focus as its board will meet on Tuesday to mull a special dividend.

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