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Stocks of the state-owned oil marketing companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--as well as private sector refiner Reliance Industries Ltd are seen down next week mainly because of a weak refining environment and a subdued market. Refining margins, after being abnormally high in Jul-Sep because of some unscheduled refinery shutdowns globally, have declined in the current quarter and may have negative implications on the earnings of refiners.
The rupee continues to remain stubbornly over 54 to a dollar. This will mean higher cost of crude for the state-owned refiners who are net importers. Even though crude prices are seeing a softening trend, a weak rupee will weigh on the state-owned companies which sell most of their output at subsidised rates.
BPCL is seen outperforming the other two oil marketing companies due to positive news from exploration and production operations. Also, most of these stocks have tracked the market of late and may continue to do so in the near term. The market is seen subdued next weak as traders are likely to book profits.