FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week (21-24.08.2012)

Stocks of major fast-moving consumer goods companies, which are seen remaining steady in the week ahead, are expected to outperform the broader market. According to some stocks FMCG sector have gained much value over the past few weeks and so the gains are expected to be limited going forward. Over the past week, shares of Hindustan Unilever Ltd gained 1.1% on sustained buying. However, shares of ITC Ltd, the stock with the maximum weightage on the BSE FMCG index, lost 2.1% in value.

The much-fancied Hindustan Unilever stock could see some selling by foreign funds benchmarked to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. While the weightage for India in the index has been raised marginally to 6.4% from 6.3%, on Wednesday, the weights for Hindustan Unilever have been reduced by 10 basis points. This could lead to $10 mln worth of Hindustan Unilever stocks being sold in the near future.

Four multinational tobacco companies have lost a landmark case to the Australian Government over plain packaging laws of tobacco. The Supreme Court decision means that starting Dec 1, cigarette and tobacco products must be sold in plain olive green packets, without any logo, and with graphic health warnings, in Australia.

ITC's stocks fell near 4% Thursday after it was reported that new anti-tobacco measures to be adopted by Australia could be a model for India also. Although it is difficult to say if and when this will be introduced in India, we see this as a new regulatory headache for Cigarette companies. This could impact recruitment of new consumers as cig (cigarette) smoking might just become even more unglamorous as packs will lack branding or exciting packaging besides displaying highly prominent antismoking images. We believe that the impact on cig will be low as smoking in India happens predominantly through loose buying (around 70% of sales) rather than packs.

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